POLL: Museveni Dominates Most Regions as Kyagulanyi Leads in Buganda Ahead of January 15 Vote
A new opinion poll suggests President Yoweri Museveni is maintaining overwhelming support across most regions of Uganda, while opposition leader Robert Kyagulanyi, popularly known as Bobi Wine, holds a clear advantage in the Buganda region ahead of the January 15 vote.
According to the survey findings, Museveni enjoys commanding leads outside Buganda, underscoring the enduring strength of his support base in rural and upcountry regions. In West Nile, the president is credited with 81 percent support compared to Kyagulanyi’s 15 percent. Similar margins are recorded in Ankole, where Museveni commands 87 percent against Kyagulanyi’s 9 percent, and in Bunyoro, where the incumbent stands at 88 percent.
Northern and eastern regions also show strong backing for Museveni. The poll places him at 85 percent in Acholi, 83 percent in Teso, and 83 percent in Lango. In Karamoja, Museveni registers one of his highest scores at 89 percent, while Kyagulanyi trails at 10 percent. The Rwenzori and Tooro sub-regions similarly tilt heavily in Museveni’s favor, with 78 percent and 77 percent respectively.
Busoga emerges as one of the more competitive regions outside Buganda, with Museveni polling 50 percent against Kyagulanyi’s close 45 percent, suggesting a tighter race and a potentially decisive battleground.
Meanwhile, Kyagulanyi’s strength in Buganda continues to shape the national contest, reflecting his urban appeal and strong support among younger voters. Analysts say the stark regional contrasts highlight differing voter priorities, including economic stability, service delivery, and political change.
As campaigning enters its final stretch, the poll underscores the scale of the challenge facing the opposition, while also pointing to regions where voter turnout and shifting allegiances could still influence the final outcome.
Outside Buganda, Museveni enjoys commanding leads:
West Nile: Museveni 81%, Kyagulanyi 15%
Ankole: Museveni 87%, Kyagulanyi 9%
Busoga: Museveni 50%, Kyagulanyi 45%
Acholi: Museveni 85%, Kyagulanyi 14%
Rwenzori: Museveni 78%, Kyagulanyi 18%
Teso: Museveni 83%, Kyagulanyi 14%
Bunyoro: Museveni 88%, Kyagulanyi 11%
Lango: Museveni 83%, Kyagulanyi 16%
Kigezi: Museveni 86%, Kyagulanyi 10%
Karamoja: Museveni 89%, Kyagulanyi 10%
Tooro: Museveni 77%, Kyagulanyi 20%
Acholi (another segment): Museveni 81%, Kyagulanyi 18%
Sebei: Museveni 85%, Kyagulanyi 14%
